Coronanoia by the Numbers

I will attempt to explain why you can use basic math to show how things are in the present and past, but you cannot use basic math, or even very complex math, to show how things will unfold with a virus.

I’ve been on the receiving end of a lot of hate over the past couple of weeks, so don’t think there’s anything you might say to me that will phase me. It won’t, because I know that when you tell me what an awful person I am, it’s an emotional reaction. Given the emotion on both sides of the Coronanoia debate, I will do my best to explain things as logically as possible and in simple terms. Please read with an open and calm mind.

Something I’ve always said, which I believe to be very true of human nature, is that people will often stick to a situation they’re in because one of the most difficult things a person can face is realizing their motivations were utterly misguided.  Therefore, Democrats remain Democrats, regardless of any evidence we present to them. How horrible it must be for someone who has supported abortion their entire life to finally reason, “there is a heartbeat there, and I have supported the killing of innocent human life.” That thought, that reasoning, the transformation of one’s intellect in that direction—how can it not weigh too heavily on a person’s heart, or their mind become so riddled with guilt that they no longer like who they are? This is why people resist change, even when it’s the best thing for them; it’s a frightening thought that you will have to acknowledge your wrongs and live with guilt. Denial is a much easier path to follow.

I once designed medical software, and one application I created was used to track heart surgeries, enabling hospitals to collect data for their use and participate in a program called the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) in collaboration with Duke University. Duke had several very complex mathematical models that took into account hundreds of pieces of information regarding a patient’s history, risk factors, and surgical outcomes. I was the first computer programmer in the country to successfully encode all of Duke’s risk algorithms into an application. It involved a lot of complex math, but when all was said and done, it provided hospitals with a valuable tool by which they could compare their results to those of hundreds of other facilities and determine if they were meeting the needs of their patients as effectively as possible.

Don’t feel bad at all if you have a difficult time grasping the concept I’m trying to explain, because you’d be in good company. I constantly had hospital personnel, including heart surgeons and other doctors, get irritated because we wouldn’t let the program show them what someone’s odds of survival were before surgery, so it could help them decide whether or not to operate. Did you notice the part in the previous paragraph that mentioned the inclusion of “surgical outcomes” in the mathematical models? Data was collected during procedures, which factored in, because we couldn’t possibly know what would happen with a patient and how their body would react before the events unfolded. The math was strictly for after-the-fact analysis. There were way too many variables to predict what “might” happen—it’s also not remotely ethical to attempt such a prediction.

When all the numbers were in, if one hospital consistently had a higher mortality rate, that didn’t mean that all heart patients across the country were suddenly at a higher risk. It meant that something was different in that one hospital – that there were outlying factors that needed to be examined in that one facility.

With the Coronavirus. If you take the numbers we know in the present, you can make a mathematical statement about what we know at the moment, but you cannot use this information to accurately predict the future because there are way too many unknown variables (which will be revealed in a minute). Here is a chart that I noticed being shared heavily across social media, and each time, it was accompanied by information trying to scare people into thinking the worst was coming.

Let’s consider the total number of cases in China, which has a population of approximately 1.4 billion people. What this actually demonstrates is that 99.995% of their population didn’t even contract the virus, which has now leveled off in China. Similar population-to-actual contraction ratios exist in other countries, with Italy perhaps being the exception. So why do we believe that everyone will get it here, when that hasn’t been happening?

The chart shows that the United States has nearly half the cases of Italy, but with Italy having 15 times the death rate. I know there will be some who will state that our people just got it and haven’t had the chance to die from it yet. Fair enough, but how many of those in Italy also haven’t had the opportunity to die from it? It is unlikely that our mortality rate can ever catch up to theirs.

Just as you can’t say that one hospital’s performance in heart surgery will equal another’s, you can’t say the same about countries. Italy had several outlying factors that aren’t present here. One was their “Hug and Asian” program.

“Mayor of Florence Dario Nardella has suggested residents hug Chinese people to encourage them in the fight against the novel coronavirus.”

Italy also has a full-blown socialized medicine system, where, like every other country with free healthcare, the value someone has left in their life is largely determined by age. Italy treated the young, who were likely to survive anyway, and sent the elderly home to die.

Another factor to consider is that, regardless of the source, there are no accurate numbers and may never be.  We don’t know how many people who have had this and never sought treatment. We can only know how many were tested. We cannot determine a valid mortality rate, so regardless of the rate we calculate using available data, the actual rate of mortality will always be significantly lower.

Then, there is no shortage of mathematical models that show how this virus will multiply. We know this virus is highly contagious, but these linear models are grossly inaccurate because there are too many unknown factors. I saw one model on Facebook, created by a nurse, which consistently doubled the virus every couple of days. Such models are strictly a tool to instill fear and are otherwise worthless for public consumption.

In my cardiac software example, I mentioned the mathematical calculations depended on several categories of information, including history and risk factors. People will often think things like: my dad died of a heart attack when he was 72, so I have a family history of heart problems.  That’s wrong. If your dad died at 35 of heart disease, then you need to have regular check-ups. The way it is generally viewed, if you have family that had heart problems before the age of 50, then it is likely attributed to genetics. Still, for over 50, it is likely attributed to lifestyle. You don’t genetically inherit your parents’ smoking habits or bad diets—they made choices that affected them, but not necessarily you. Makes sense, right?

How can we possibly predict the future demographics of people who will contract this virus? We don’t. It’s impossible to predict, and with proper awareness and insulating high-risk people in assisted living and other places, we are greatly reducing contractions among those who would be at a higher risk of fatality. Since we don’t know what demographics will actually be infected, we cannot predict how this virus will expand or the potential fatalities.

We know that viruses mutate. They can mutate in two directions: become stronger or become weaker. Did you know that a stronger virus has more potential to be deadly, but it is also spread at a much slower rate? People go down harder and faster with less time to spread, where with a weaker virus, the host remains up and about much longer, giving far more time and opportunity to spread. Since we have no way of knowing whether most of the mutations will be stronger or weaker, we cannot predict the likelihood of expansion or fatalities.

Did you know that heat affects the virus? This is why the flu typically disappears in the Spring. We’ve reached spring in the South (mostly), so our risk of transmission has already decreased. Yes, it can still be transmitted through close contact, but again, there is nothing that can be clearly calculated based on the different temperatures and humidity, the type of contact people have, etc., to even remotely predict expansion or fatalities.

Does it make any sense how people are “expertly” predicting grossly unpredictable things? Now, based on previous flu patterns, you can use sophisticated mathematical modeling to make predictions (as seen at Imperial College London), but it’s just that — a prediction, a guess. Just as with the mathematical modeling we used at Duke for cardiac outcomes, there was never an intention to accurately predict mortality, because we couldn’t take it that far. It’s more like trying to predict the weather, where certain things repeat often enough that meteorologists can get close (even though they are frequently wrong with the weather too). Except that hosts and viruses are far more unpredictable in their actions than the weather. How will the virus mutate and how often? What will be the demographics of hosts infected? How will the hosts behave with travel and self-quarantine? And then, adding the frequently unpredictable weather, on top of everything else, as something that affects the longevity of a virus.

And WHO just released these as I was writing this. From their location, they are time-stamped 03/25/2020 1:21AM.

The US is the only country listed above with **, which, according to WHO, means: **includes presumptive cases. Let it sink in how, not only does “presumptions” make it impossible to predict expansion or fatalities, but we can’t even get an accurate snapshot of what is currently mathematically precise for the US.

Assuming it is correct for our argument;

Italy has seen a 10,349-case increase in the past few days, while the US has seen a 16,836-case increase.

Italy has seen an increase in deaths by 1252 souls, while the US has seen an increase of 209.

Italy has seen an increase in overall fatality from 9% to 9.5% of those infected.

The US is holding at a 1.2% fatality rate of those infected—and remember, we only know that total deaths, not the actual total of contractions, so that the true mortality rate will be lower.

Based on the math we can do with what we actually know, you have significantly less than a 0.5% chance of contracting the virus in our country, and if you do, you have at least a 98.8% chance of survival.

For these odds, we have terminated the employment (livelihood) of more than a third of our country. Ever heard the expression “tossing the baby out with the bathwater?”

Another fact in all this. We KNOW the mainstream media (MSM) lies to us. If you don’t understand this, then buy my book and it’ll lay it out for you.

Every election, the MSM feeds us poll information in an attempt to persuade us in a particular direction, politically. They feed us bogus global warming information to instill fear. There is a new pandemic every two years, just in time for election cycles.  It’s just that this one has taken a firm root of fear in the minds of too many people this time. Much of it is because of Facebook, which has become an echo chamber of fear.

The real victims of the coronavirus:

• 33 %+ of Americans who have lost their jobs.
• Those who already have chronic illnesses and are having a difficult time finding supplies they rely on because of hoarding and getting medical services they need because of shutdowns and redirection of services.
• Those who have infants and can’t obtain baby wipes and other essential items for caring for their children due to hoarding.
• People who already have severe anxiety issues. The extra stress of this “crisis” will lead to an increase in heart attacks and strokes.
• People who suffer from severe depression. For people like myself, who have had their only coping mechanism eliminated because of this “crisis,” this will lead to an increase in suicide. In 2009, we saw a rise of 5,000 suicides because of unemployment, and that was nothing compared to the staggering unemployment we’re facing now.
• People who own restaurants and other small businesses who will suffer financial devastation.
• And everyone who continues to be duped by the mainstream media and the Facebook echo chamber of fear.

Now, there are those on the other side of this who see this whole thing bringing our democracy to its knees, shredding the Bill of Rights, and ending our country as we know it. Those individuals have been relentlessly criticized and ridiculed on social media.  These are the “thinkers” being torn apart by the “feelers”—the same typical problem we have with right versus left. Everything I wrote above will never impact the “feelers” of the left, but for those on the right who have fallen into the mind trap of fear, then I’m hopeful it will awaken them. For the thinkers, you are both right and wrong all at the same time.

About 13 days ago, I was informed that a 15-day nationwide shutdown was forthcoming. I couldn’t imagine anything like that happening. I couldn’t imagine that anything like that could be pulled off, but I watched, learned, and listened as one piece went into place after another. No one ever dropped a hammer (boom) and said the US is now closed. Nope, it has been a very systematic process where enough of the people were literally scared enough that they were asking for the government to please take over their lives. Restaurants closed, then other service businesses. Driving people home. Then, public places, such as parks and beaches, closed. Given the nature of the virus and the fact that not only does heat kill it, but having vitamin D infused into our skin is one of the best remedies, it is arguable that our southern beaches were the best place to be (as long as you minded what you shared/touched with others). Cities imposed curfews, and people complied. Eventually, states closed, and before we knew it, our country was shut down based on fewer deaths than almost every other tragedy in my lifetime.

Initially, I didn’t think President Trump would allow this to happen. I believe that MAGA is much more than a campaign slogan to him. I believe he believes in what makes this country great. So why would he allow things to go down this path? I’m confident he would only do such a thing if he thought it was good for the country, but the math on all of this is far from persuasive, and it must be clear to him that the devastation we will incur by shutting everything down is a cure far worse than the disease, so why? Then it hit me… the destruction will be far worse, almost catastrophic in some areas; the large cities, the democrat strongholds. This will take socialism to the Nth degree in those areas. These places could, quite literally, collapse, while the rest of us will bounce back. The left, and those who support the left, will be disproportionately affected by this shutdown.  Add to that, the democrats are more worried about political gains during this tragedy than their own people, and they will be turned on just for that. Then there’s the $1,000 checks (which I don’t believe in). The Democrats are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.  If they support the checks going out, then their supporters will be getting $1,000 checks from Trump, and many will come to love him just for the free money. But, if the democrats keep standing in the way, then their constituents will see them as the reason they didn’t get their $1,000 checks.

Where the “thinkers” are right—we are giving the left a blueprint for how to take over the country rapidly next time they are in complete control, and usher in socialism without firing a shot. That damage, the providing of this blueprint, has now happened, and there is no putting that genie back in the bottle. My hope is that this takes the left so far out of power that it won’t matter.

Where I believe this entire virus crisis has been blown way out of proportion by the left to wield against Trump in an election year, Trump will outsmart them (again) and this could very well put the final nails in the Democrat Party’s coffin, putting them out of commission for a decade or longer.

Another way to look at this: America was no longer operating the way she was meant to, so we are effectively shutting her down so we can reboot. Let’s hope she comes back online… or even worse things are coming.